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Predictions

Numerous predictions have been made by the team at Thunderbolts.info. Many of these predictions have gone against conventional wisdom and yet were remarkably accurate in their forecasts. The predictions have been captured on this page. A grade has been assigned to each prediction as follows:

  • A - complete success
  • B - partial success
  • C - indeterminate
  • D - partial failure
  • E - complete failure
  • ? - results inconclusive - usually due to NASA collecting or releasing insufficient data.

Additionally, the grades may be altered as follows:

  • + prediction contradicted conventional theories
  • - prediction corresponded with conventional theories

The font size of the grade indicates the completeness of the prediction as follows:

  • A - the entire prediction has been considered complete
  • B - a portion of the prediction is considered incomplete
  • ? - none of the prediction has been observed or measured

Comets: Deep Impact

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Missing Water A+ Thornhill: An abundance of water on or below the surface of the nucleus (the underlying assumption of the dirty snowball hypothesis) is unlikely. see 2005 July 03 The explosion removed many thousands of tons of material. But prior to impact, the calculated water output was 550 pounds per second; and not long after the impact, the calculated output was, once again, 550 pounds per second (See picture above regarding the return to previous level). So despite the impressive explosion, the envisioned sub-surface water refused to reveal itself. By NASA's own calculations, therefore, Deep Impact has only made matters worse for standard theory see 2005 July 16
Comet breakup C+ Thornhill: So there is some small chance that astronomers will be surprised to see the comet split apart, if the projectile reaches the surface of the comet and results in an intense arc. see 2001 Oct 18 Thornhill: These predictions remain but the intensity of the electrical effects depend upon the degree to which the comet is charged with respect to the solar plasma at the impact point. So it is disappointing that NASA chose a short period comet that only ranges between the orbits of Jupiter and Mars. Long period comets spend more time traveling slowly in the lower voltage regions of the outer solar system. So when they rush toward the Sun their electrical display is more energetic than the short period comets. Also, the same electrical circuit that drives the Sun energizes comets. The Sun's activity is near minimum, so we may expect reduced cometary activity. Of course, none of these electrical considerations figured in NASA's thinking. see 2005 July 03
Advance Flash A+ Thornhill: Electrical interactions with Deep Impact may be slight, but they should be measurable if NASA will look for them. They would likely be similar to those of Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 prior to striking Jupiter's atmosphere: The most obvious would be a flash (lightning-like discharge) shortly before impact. see 2005 July 03 What you see is something really surprising. First, there is a small flash, then there's a delay, then there's a big flash and the whole thing breaks loose see 2005 July 07
Energy release A+ Thornhill:The electrical energy will be released before impact. see 2005 July 03 See previous observation.
sheath around impactor B+ Thornhill: The impactor may form a sheath around it as it enters the coma, becoming a "comet within a comet". The plasma sheath could interfere with communications in the same way as experienced by the Space Shuttle during reentry. see 2005 July 03 Finally, why were there no images returned from the impactor seconds before impact? The lower right image is the last from the impactor camera. Thornhill predicted an electrical flash before impact. Yesterday's TPOD reported the surprise expressed by NASA's expert on high-velocity impacts, Peter Schultz, when two flashes were seen. The lack of images in the last few seconds would be explained simply if the impactor was hit by a "cometary lightning bolt" seconds before contact. The whiteout seen in the lower right quadrant indicates significant electrical discharging near the impact point. Data from the communications team and the flyby spacecraft cameras should decide the issue. see 2005 July 08
System Failure B+ Thornhill: Internal electrical stress may short out the electronics on board the impactor before impact. That could compromise the guidance system and the success of the mission. see 2005 July 03 See previous observation. see 2005 July 08
High-Energy Explosion A+ Thornhill: the energetic effects of the encounter should exceed that of a simple physical impact, in the same way that was seen with comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 at Jupiter. see 2001 Oct 18 It is now well documented that every scientist associated with the project was stunned by the energetic outburst. see 2005 July 07
multiple craters A+ Thornhill: If the energy is distributed over several flashes, more than one crater on the comet nucleus could result - in addition to any impact crater see 2005 July 03 By tracing rays back to their source we noted the appearance of two ejecta centers immediately after the impact. see 2005 July 19
Water in Coma A+ Thornhill: It is advisable that investigators look at water abundances both close to the nucleus and in the far coma to see to what extent water is being formed away from the nucleus by the combination of negative oxygen ions with protons from the solar wind. The logical concern here is that these reactions will, by improper reasoning, give inflated values for the water ice abundance in the comet nucleus. see 2005 July 03 readings of the relative abundance of OH should drop in the immediate wake of impact, while in the days after the impact abundances of OH should rise. Though this is inconceivable under the standard model, preliminary data released does suggest this pattern. see 2005 July 19
fine dust A+ Thornhill: The primary distinction between a comet and an asteroid is that, due to its elliptical orbit, electrical arcing and "electrostatic cleaning" will clean the nucleus' surface, leaving little or no dust or debris on it. see 2005 July 03 Both the volume of dust and its extraordinarily fine texture have created mysteries for cometologists. The ejected dust appears to be as fine as talcum powder. In no sense was this expected. But it is characteristic of cathode sputtering, a process used industrially to create super-fine deposits or coatings from cathode materials. see 2006 Febrary 17
surface geology A+ Thornhill: The model predicts a sculpted surface, distinguished by sharply defined craters, valleys, mesas, and ridges - the opposite of the softened relief expected of a sublimating dirty snowball. (A chunk of ice melting in the Sun loses its sharp relief, just like a scoop of melting ice cream.) see 2005 July 03 ůmakes an observation in a NASA release on Deep Impact all the more noteworthy: "The image [of the nucleus] reveals topographic features, including ridges, scalloped edges and possibly impact craters formed long ago". see 2005 July 08
  A+ Thornhill: The discharge and/or impact may initiate a new jet on the nucleus (which will be collimated - filamentary - not sprayed out) and could even abruptly change the positions and intensities of other jets due to the sudden change in charge distribution of the comet nucleus. see 2005 July 03 An El Roque de los Muchachos observatory (La Palma, Spain) report states, "New jets appeared after the impact, the two jets observed in the previous night are still active. Also the curved expanding impact dust shell is visible at ~18 arcsec (corresponding to about 12,000km) from the comet nucleus". see 2006 March 03
surface arcing A+ Thornhill: A mechanical impact will not produce the temperatures of an electric arc, which can be tens of thousands of degrees over a very small area. The problem will be whether temperature readings will have the resolution to be able to distinguish a very high temperature over a tiny area or merely an average over a large impact area. Anomalous high temperature readings could precede physical impact, accompany impact, and follow impact. An indicator of arcing would be the presence of atoms ionised to a higher degree than can be explained by the energy of the impact. see 2005 July 03 We had seen very small white spots on photographs of comet Wild 2, and interpreted them as electrical arcs in the form of coronal discharges. The highest resolution photographs of Tempel 1, taken by the impactor, show numerous featureless patches of white-out, most located where the electrical hypothesis would put them - on the rims of craters and on the wall of cliffs rising above flat valley floors. This single feature, we believe, provides the smoking guns we have waited for. Since their initial suggestion that the patches could be highly reflective spots on the surface, we've heard no further comment on the subject. The signature of electric arcing should be clearly evident in the full stream of data now being analyzed. see 2005 July 19
Subsurface Composition A+ Thornhill: The impact/electrical discharge will not reveal primordial dirty ice, but the same composition as the surface. see 2005 July 03 In fact there was no change in measured water after the impact. Another observation from the Odin telescope in Sweden found that the total amount of water appeared to decrease after the impact, probably because of the injection of quantities of dry dust. see 2005 July 15
Crater Size ?+ Thornhill: The impact/electrical discharge will be into rock, not loosely consolidated ice and dust. The impact crater will be smaller than expected. see 2005 July 03 The occlusion of the impact site by the unexpected dust cloud leaves this question of crater size unanswered. (Some NASA investigators have suggested that the impact did not reach a deep level, but so far the pronouncements on the subject are quite contradictory because they're trying to explain things they did not expect). see 2005 July 19
changes to jets ?+ Thornhill: Changes to the appearance of the jets may be seen before impact. see 2001 Oct 18 Failed electronics prevented any details from being seen before impact. See previous observation. see 2005 July 08
Arcs will be hotter than expected ?+ Thornhill: Any arcs generated will be hotter than can be explained by mechanical impact. If temperature measurements are made with sufficient resolution, they will be much higher than expected from impact heating. see 2005 July 03 Though we've found nothing from NASA relating to the temperatures of the explosion, we said that the discharge would be "hotter than can be explained by mechanical impact. If temperature measurements are made with sufficient resolution, they will be much higher than expected from impact heating". On this one we are confident as ever. see 2005 July 08
High-energy electrical noise ?+ Thornhill: The signature of an electrical discharge would be a high-energy burst of electrical noise across a wide spectrum, a "flash" from infra-red to ultraviolet and the enhanced emission of x-rays from the vicinity of the projectile. The energy of a mechanical impact is not sufficient to generate x-rays. see 2001 Oct 18 So far there has been no indication that any instrument based near or on Earth had the temporal or spatial resolution to decide this issue see 2005 July 19
copious x-rays ?+ Thornhill: X-rays will accompany discharges to the projectile, which will not match X-ray production through the mechanics of impact. The intensity curve will be that of a lightning bolt (sudden onset, exponential decline) and may well include more than one peak. see 2005 July 03 So far there has been no indication that any instrument based near or on Earth had the temporal or spatial resolution to decide this issue see 2005 July 19
Speed of Transport. ?+ Electrical theorists suggest that NASA carefully review the rate at which ejecta filled the coma. Could kinetic effects (the effects of physical impact alone) have generated such speeds? Acceleration of negatively charged material is a predictable effect of electric discharge. see 2005 July 04 See previous observation.
ionized copper ?+ Thornhill: Copper atoms ionized to a surprisingly high degree should be detectable from Earth-based telescopes. see 2001 Oct 18 See previous observation.
heavy elements ?+ Thornhill: If an arc is struck between the comet nucleus and the projectile, we may expect to see metals such as Li, Na, K, Ca, Mg and Fe in a flash spectrum before impact. They will have been removed from the rocky comet in the cathode arc. see 2005 July 03 See previous observation.
negative ions ?+ Thornhill: NASA investigators should look for an abundance of negative ions in the impact ejecta. This would be an obvious signature of a negatively charged comet. Forbidden spectral lines from negative oxygen ions have been detected spectroscopically in comet comas in the past. They indicate the presence there of a strong electric field. see 2005 July 03 See previous observation.

Comets: Stardust

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Subsurface Composition A+ Thornhill: Comets are the result of electrical discharge machining of planetary bodies that occurs in the catastrophic evolution of planetary orbits. It is far too simplistic to assume that the planets were formed along with the Sun and remained in their present orbits ever since. see 2004 January 06 But NASA researchers announced on March 13 another in the long procession of surprises about comets. The grains from comet Wild 2, trapped in aerogel and returned to Earth, were much larger than expected and made from the same high-temperature minerals as found in the most abundant meteorites. This discovery was so unexpected that an early sample was thought to be contamination from the spacecraft. see 2006 March 14
  A+ Thornhill: In addition to removing dust, the gargantuan electric forces of an interplanetary thunderbolt are able to loft entire mountains into space from the surface of a planet. Comets and asteroids can be formed this way." see 2004 January 06 See previous observation.
  A+ Thornhill: �Plasma cosmologists have shown that stars do not form by gravitational accretion. Stars form in a cosmic discharge, inside a plasma z-pinch. The dusty disks seen about some stars may not be due to gravitational accretion but are more likely to be matter expelled electrically by the central star. Electrical expulsion can also explain the formation of the observed close orbiting gas giants. In a hierarchical fashion, comets can be seen as the debris, or afterbirth, of a planet. They are not primordial. see 2005 September 13 See previous observation.

Mars: Themis

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Dust devils at heart of dust storm A+ The global dust storm that engulfed the planet Mars in August and September of 2001, involved a packed assembly of dust devils carrying great volumes of Martian dust into billowing clouds. see 2005 Nov 09 The image above, released December 30, 2003, shows apparent vortices (a word that would not be used by NASA scientists) rising into billowing clouds from the margins of the south polar ice cap in the Martian summer. The caption accompanying the release, reads: "Like billowing smoke from a brush fire, clouds of dust are seen streaming off the edge of the Martian south polar cap. The southern hemisphere is in the middle of its summer season and experiencing a multitude of small dust storms like this one. The net effect is an increasingly dusty atmosphere across the whole planet and with it, warmer atmospheric temperatures." see 2007 May 9

Mars: Russell Crater

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
no evidence of flowing liquid ?+ When viewed more closely no evidence of flowing liquid will be found. see 2007 May 14 Awaiting confirmation.
topography ignored A+ When viewed more closely it will be seen that the channels do not follow topography in the fashion of flowing liquid. see 2007 May 14 A recent HiRise close-up image of a crater appears to confirm this. This will be clarified in a future TPOD.
proximity to electrostatic sculpting B+ Since the channels are carved into a smooth surface (i.e., a surface not strewn with boulders and rocky rubble), the immediate surroundings should have preserved more subtle evidence of particle beam activity, electrostatic sculpting, and glassification. see 2007 May 14 The shiny appearance of the ravines is at least consistent with the possibility of glassification, though far from definitive. Further investigation is pending.
terminal craters A+ Cratering in connection with channel formation must be anticipated, particularly at the starting points and terminations of the channels. see 2007 May 14 Recent HiRise images confirm the prediction of craters strategically placed along the ravines, particularly at the terminations. This will be discussed in a future TPOD.

Saturns Moons

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Melted craters and rilles ?+ Telesto, Calypso and Pandora may not have had their craters and rilles softened by a layer of dust. Their craters and rilles may have been literally softened by melting. Radar measurements should be able to distinguish between the two. see 2007 May 15 Awaiting confirmation.
Moving Geysers A+ Regarding Enceladus, electrical theorist Wallace Thornhill and his colleagues suggest there is no geyser of subsurface water analogous to the Yellowstone geyser. They say that if NASA will look they will find that the jets move across the surface. And in their motion across the surface, the electric arcs that produce the jets are creating the observed channels as they excavate material from the surface and accelerate it into space. see 2006 Mar 13 It turns out that NASA has had sufficient data in hand for at least several months confirming that the jets do indeed move across the surface (see for example this video, in which the jets move in opposition to the visual rotation of the sphere). see 2006 Nov 8

Io

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Hot Plumes A+ Thornhill: I predict that when seen close up the temperature of those hot spots will approach that of the Sun as they are both electric arcs. (Electric arcs create intensely hot spots.) see 1999 Oct 8 The spacecraft measured the temperatures of Io's volcanic hot spots and gave readings, averaged over a pixel, that were hotter than any lava on Earth - in fact, too hot to be measured by Galileo's instruments. see 2004 Dec 15
Channel Shapes ?+ Thornhill: On the contrary, most of the dark patterns seen radiating from the crater in this image of the Marduk "volcano" are not lava flows. They have the shape of lightning scars on Earth and are caused by powerful currents streaking across the surface to satisfy the arc's hunger for electric charge. They rip huge sinuous furrows in the soil and hurl it to either side to form levee banks and side lobes. The stubby side channels will be found to have rounded ends like those seen on Martian "rivers". see 1999 Oct 8 Unknown
Moving Plumes A+ the plumes are the jets of cathode arcs, and they do not explode from a volcanic vent but move around and erode the periphery of dark areas (called "lava lakes" by planetary geologists) see 2004 Dec 15 None of the expected volcanic vents could be found. Rather, the plumes of the volcanoes are actually moving across the surface of Io, an exclamation point being provided by the plume of Prometheus which, in the years since Voyager, has moved more than 80 kilometers. see 2004 Dec 15
Cool "lava lakes" A+ the "lava lakes" themselves are merely the solid surface of Io etched electrically by cathode arcs and exposed from beneath the sulfur dioxide "snow" deposited by continuous discharge activity. Therefore, they will not reveal the expected heat of a recent lava flow. see 2004 Dec 15 As predicted by Thornhill, the discharging was discovered to be focused on the edges of the so-called lava lakes, though the rest of these dark fields are comparatively cold. see 2004 Dec 15

Supernove: SN1987A

Feature Grade Prediction Observation
Structure of equatorial rings A+ Thornhill: If the equatorial ring shows the Birkeland currents in the outer sheath of an axial plasma current column, then the supernova outburst is the result of a cosmic z-pinch in the central column, focused on the central star. It is important to note that the z-pinch naturally takes the ubiquitous hourglass shape of planetary nebulae. No special conditions and mysteriously conjured magnetic fields are required. see 2005 August 24 The Red Square shows the stellar Z-pinch in close-up and we can see the Birkeland filaments for the first time, called combs in the Science paper. They match the electrical model. Supernova 1987A was successfully decoded. The hallmark of a successful theory is its ability to predict or explain new discoveries with no additional assumptions. see 2007 April 17

 

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